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Home»Research»Predicting disease risk and driving preventive healthcare using AI – Dan Elton and the National Institute of Human Genomes
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Predicting disease risk and driving preventive healthcare using AI – Dan Elton and the National Institute of Human Genomes

versatileaiBy versatileaiApril 23, 2025No Comments7 Mins Read
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The landscape of preventive healthcare and genetic research allows for faster, more accurate prediction of disease risk. Evolution is particularly important as the healthcare industry moves from reactive treatment to aggressive care.

Integrating advanced functions with genomic data allows researchers and clinicians to analyze a vast number of genetic variation, provide more accurate insight into disease susceptibility, and inform early intervention strategies.

Academic research shows that AI-driven methods improve prediction of cardiovascular disease beyond traditional clinical models and emphasize the value of machine learning in preventive care.

A scoping review from EclinicalMedicine explores how artificial intelligence (AI) supports personalized medicine in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment. Analyzing 121 studies highlights its ability to identify genetic biomarkers for AI, enhance risk predictions, and inform tailored treatments.

At the same time, gene editing tools like CRISPR are paired with AI functions, enhancing the design of targeted therapies, minimizing the effects of not targeting targets, and accelerating advances in precision drugs.

A recent review published in Frontiers of BioEngineering and Biotechnology highlights how artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance CRISPR-based genome editing by improving Guide RNA design, minimizing the effect of not targeting targets, and optimizing editing strategies. These advances are particularly important in the treatment of genetic diseases such as cancer, sickle cell anemia, and Alzheimer’s disease.

As these technologies and methodologies mature, healthcare and life science business leaders are increasingly investing in data infrastructure, AI governance, and interdisciplinary teams to operate these tools.

The ability to utilize AI for risk prediction and genomic accuracy is more than just a research frontier. It is becoming a competitive obligation for organizations that aim to provide personalized care on a large scale.

Matthew Demello, editor-in-chief of Emerj, recently spoke with Dr. Dan Elton, a staff scientist at the National Institutes of Health (NHGRI) about the Business in Business podcast to explore these topics. In this article, we will examine two important insights from their conversation.

Use AI to advance multigenic risk prediction: leverage complex, reinforced polygenic models to promote rare disease risk assessment and preventive care. Integrating AI and CRISPR for precision gene editing: by leveraging machine learning to streamline the accuracy of gene editing in adeno-associated viruses (AAVs) to save researchers from time-consuming trial and error lab work.

Listen to the complete episode below:

Guest: Dr. Dan Elton, a researcher at the National Institute of Human Genomes

Expertise: AI in Genomics, Polygenic Risk Prediction, Biomedical Data Science

A brief perception: Dr. Elton has worked at the intersection of AI and healthcare for many years, including his previous role at Mass General Brigham and his current work with the NIH.彼の専門知識は、予測モデリング、放射線科アプリケーション、およびゲノミクス中心のAI研究に及びます。

Use AI to promote multigenic risk prediction

Traditional disease prediction methods rely heavily on family history and specific genetic variation. While these approaches have benefits, many health traits such as height, cardiovascular disease, and neurodevelopmental disorders are multigenes and are influenced by the fact that hundreds or thousands of genes work together.

Dr. Elton outlines how these complex properties require more refined modeling than the linear regression tools commonly used today.

多遺伝子リスク予測では、幅広い遺伝的変異体、または多型を使用して、特定の疾患を発症する可能性を推定します。これまで、この空間のほとんどのモデルは、スパースの制約を伴う線形回帰を使用していました。 He thinks these effectively, but he is limited to capturing the complete complexity of genetic interactions.

According to Dr. Elton, neural networks and other nonlinear AI models offer a promising next step in being able to detect complex relationships between genes that linear models cannot.

“We know that the way genes are related to phenotypes is not just linear. There are a lot of nonlinearities as well,” explained Dr. Elton. “So I think LLMS and other neural net type models will be used in the future to improve this kind of prediction.”
– Dr. Dan Elton, researcher at the National Institute of Human Genomes

One of the challenges in employing neural networks for multigenic risk prediction is substantial data requirements. Dr. Elton estimates that 300,000-700,000 genetic sequences are necessary to predict characteristics such as height and assess the risk of conditions such as autism and intelligence, and to analyze 300,000-700,000, and correspond to trillions of data points.

これは、GPT-4などのモデルで使用されるトレーニングデータの規模と同等です。 These vast data requests help explain why such AI-driven risk forecasting has not yet become mainstream.

Despite the logistical challenges, Dr. Elton believes the benefits are clear. AI-enhanced multigene modeling allows for more accurate disease prediction, allowing healthcare systems to intervene more quickly and more effectively.

By proactively identifying individuals at risk, Dr. Elton points out that clinicians can provide targeted screenings, preventative therapy and customized lifestyle recommendations.

Dr. Elton then points out that as AI models improve and datasets expand through public-private genomic initiatives, the feasibility of nonlinear modeling in clinical settings is becoming more realistic. It is important for healthcare executives and innovation leaders to build the organization’s capacity to intake, manage, and ethically apply such data.

Institutions that are now beginning to invest in both talent and infrastructure are best positioned to deliver the next generation of data-driven, personalized care.

Elton acknowledged that current linear models already work well for properties like height, but he emphasized that nonlinear models such as neural networks are likely to play a growing role as data availability increases.

He noted that using these more advanced models can help capture gene-gene-gene interactions that bring linearity closer to mistakes. As genomic datasets grow through initiatives that collect hundreds of thousands of sequences, the possibility of applying deep learning to clinical risk prediction becomes more realistic.

Although these methods have not yet reached clinical implementation, Dr. Elton suggests they represent future directions to improve genetic prediction.

Integrate AI with CRISPR for precision gene editing

CRISPR-CAS9の導入は、バイオテクノロジーの大きなマイルストーンを示し、高度に標的を絞った遺伝的編集を可能にしました。ただし、エルトン博士が説明しているように、遺伝子編集の成功は、CRISPRツール自体以上のものに依存しています。 It also depends on the precise delivery method and careful design of the support components. He shows that it is in these areas of radical technological development in genetics that AI is beginning to play an important role.

遺伝子編集の重要な課題の1つは、他の組織に影響を与えることなく、CRISPR機械を正しい組織に提供することです。エルトン博士は、アデノ関連ウイルス(AAVS)の使用を送達車両として強調しています。 This should be designed to only enter the intended cells.

He points out that companies like Asimov Bio apply AI to optimize AAV designs, saving researchers in time-consuming trial and error labs. This use of machine learning reflects how AI is used in drug design. Rather than replacing human expertise, it is to accelerate its repetition and improve specificity.

“There’s a company called Asimov and uses AI to help design AAVs,” Elton said. 「実際には、AIが薬物の設計に使用されている方法に似ていますが、ここでは、Gene Editorの引用「配送車両」を設計しています。 ”

– Dr. Dan Elton, researcher at the National Institute of Human Genomes

AI also supports the development of guide RNAs (GRNAs) that direct CRISPR to the correct sections of DNA.設計が不十分なGRNAは、ターゲットオフエフェクトにつながり、ゲノム内の複数の意図しない場所を編集する可能性があります。エルトン博士は、AIモデルがラボでテストされる前にGRNA設計の精度と有効性を予測することにより、これらのリスクを軽減するのに役立つと述べ、安全性と効率を向上させます。

Dr. Elton does not abide by the name of the current LLM-based system used to design the CRISPR editor, but he suggests this is a natural next step. He envisions specialized AI tools being developed to support guiding RNA design, modeling interactions with DNA, and purification delivery systems for more complex gene therapy. AIに強化されたRNAの設計は、遺伝子編集が肝臓や脳などのより困難な標的に容易にアクセスできる組織を超えて拡大するため、特に重要です。

Dr. Elton also argues to executive podcast audiences that the convergence of AI and CRISPR not only strengthens the science of gene editing, but also opens up commercial pathways for new therapies.

From biotechnology startups to major pharmaceutical companies, from organizations that employ AI-backed gene therapy stands to accelerate R&D timelines, reduce clinical risks and provide more targeted therapies. With precision medicine becoming mainstream, AI will become the driving force behind scalable, safe and effective genomic interventions.

Elton did not name the specific LLMs currently used in this field, but he looked at the potential of future models specifically designed for gene editing applications.

These models help to improve RNA design and delivery guides, particularly as editing moves beyond the red blood cells to organs like target organs, such as the liver. Intrinsic biological complexity does not rely on generalized commercial models, but reinforces the need for ongoing AI development tailored to biological systems.

As new therapeutic use cases emerge, integration of AI tools built for genetic editing could potentially play a central role in advance of safe and effective applications in clinical settings.

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