For evidence of the uncertainty facing marketers in 2025, look for more than the forecast of industry ping ponging for AD spending.
WPP Media (formerly GroupM), which released its Global Middle-Aged Ad Expenses Forecast on Tuesday, is just the latest example.
Like all the prophets who took the crack in predicting spending trends in 2025, WPP media had to revise their previous forecasts downwards due to pressure on the marketing budget from the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs.
WPP Media currently expects global advertising spending to rise by 6% in 2025.
However, there are some bright spots.
User-generated content (UGC) sees tremendous growth driven by generated AI. Retail media is also planning to continue the meteor rise, with commercial advertising revenues expected to rise for the first time this year, surpassing TV.
revision
WPP Media expects tariffs to trigger a global advertising budget, but the 1.7% downward revision is far from the worst-case scenario.
In fact, WPP Media predicts that there will be no global recession this year, based on the current economic situation. Some good news for change! However, if the US takes a more difficult policy in its global trade policy, all bets are off.
Even with a downward revision, WPP Media’s current 6% growth forecast still represents nominal positive growth, said Kate Scott Dawkins, global president of Business Intelligence and lead author of the report.
At that rate, advertising revenue totaled to $1.08 trillion in 2025.
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Furthermore, the impact of the tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump may not be as intense as originally thought. Trump threatens baseline tariffs of 10% for almost every country, but he is largely retreating from higher tariff rates that he had previously threatened against countries like the UK, Canada and Mexico.
So the big impact on marketing budgets should be segregated by the US and Chinese markets and remain entangled in “trade and China,” Scott Dawkins said.
WPP Media predicts that US ad spending will increase by 5.6% this year, down from previous forecast of 7%, while China’s advertising market will increase by 6.8%.
Several marketing activities allocated to the US and China in response to tariffs are likely to move to the European market, particularly to the UK and Germany, Scott Dawkins said.
For example, she said Temu and Shein are already redirecting some of their US ad spending to Europe.
aide ugc
But there is enough about customs.
Surge in Generated AI Technology – The ability for users to deploy technology to create monetized content was another important theme in the report.
In fact, WPP Media predicts that 2025 will be the first time UGC will have a share of advertising revenue for the first time over professionally produced content. This is wild.
But there are some nuances worth noting here, Scott Dawkins said as he continues to blur between UGC and professional content. For example, WPP included Tiktok revenue in its UGC ratings, but did not break down professional content creators on the platform.
Meanwhile, WPP Media also expects AI to rapidly accelerate the shift to UGC by advertisers and consumers. WPP is not alone in its evaluation.
As part of the forecast, WPP Media voted for a group of 60 advertising industry experts on forecasts about how the market will evolve by 2030, mostly bullish about the AI-driven UGC revolution.
In fact, 63% expect by 2030, the majority of audiences will consume news from bots generated by individual creators and AI.
Sounds like a recipe for propagating misinformation generated by users and AI. Will that be a boon for the brand’s safety vendors?
It’s difficult to say. WPP Media does not include an estimate of MAR Tech or advertising technology spending in annual estimates, Scott-Dawkins told Adexchanger.
Social Media Bots are good now
However, one thing is certain: AI chatbots will also rebuild social media.
66% of experts voted by WPP Media expect most consumer interactions with brands will generate bots and bots by 2030. Consumer AI shopping agents communicate with brand AI marketing agents.
52% expect public social media feeds to be dominated by promotional content from brands. This includes interactions between this type of bot. Approximately 39% of experts believe that over half of social media users will become personas generated by AI by 2030.
Confused, 66% said they didn’t think AI would reduce consumer spending by 2030. That’s despite Dario Amodei, CEO of AI startup humanity, AI technology could eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within the next five years, with the recent US unemployment rate for university graduates already 1% higher than national fees.
However, marketers clearly hope that bots will take over online interactions, with 63% saying that by 2030, people will likely spend more time in a virtual world than in the real world.
So while many marketers may be happy that consumers will “down into the chatbot cave,” as Scott-Dawkins said, they still need to reach real-world consumers.
