The first global study to measure the economic impact of AI in the music and audiovisual sector estimates that generative AI will significantly threaten the incomes of human creators over the next five years, while enriching technology companies. Masu.
This is one of the key findings of a study conducted by PMP Strategy and commissioned by CISAC (International Confederation of Authors and Composers Societies, representing over 5 million creators).
Gen AI providers’ revenues are expected to increase dramatically over the next five years, but creators risk losing a large portion of their current income due to AI’s displacing impact on human-made works. Despite the ‘Gen AI’ content market providing a creative impetus, music and audiovisual creators will be at risk of losing 24% and 21% of their revenue, respectively, by 2028. It will be. This equates to a cumulative loss of 22 billion euros over five years. per year (10 billion euros in music and 12 billion euros in audiovisual).
According to the study, the market for AI-generated music and AV content is expected to grow rapidly over the next five years, from around €3 billion today to €64 billion by 2028.
The economic study estimates that, as a result of the rapid growth of the music and audiovisual content market, future revenues for Gen AI providers will increase to €4 billion per year in the music sector (up from €100 million in 2023). Masu. 5 billion euros in the audiovisual sector by 2028 (up from 200 million euros). These are revenues derived directly from unauthorized reproduction of a creator’s work and represent a transfer of economic value from the creator. To AI companies.
In the music space, the streaming and music library markets will be significantly impacted by AI. By 2028, Gen AI music is expected to account for approximately 20% of traditional music streaming platform revenue and approximately 60% of music library revenue.
For audiovisual creators, the expected revenue losses will also be significant. Translators and adapters of dubbing and subtitles will be the most affected, with 56% of their revenue at risk, while screenwriters and directors could see their revenue cannibalized by 15-20%.
The study concludes: “With an unchanged regulatory framework, creators will actually lose out on two fronts: first, in lost revenue due to uncompensated unauthorized use of their work by Gen AI models; The substitution effect of generated works will replace traditional sources of revenue and compete with man-made works.”
CISAC President Björn Ulvaeus welcomed the study as a guideline for policymakers in legislative debates around the world. “AI has the power to create new and exciting opportunities for creators of all kinds, from songwriters to filmmakers, screenwriters to film composers. But generative AI can cause significant harm if poorly regulated. We must accept that we also have power over human creators, their careers and livelihoods. Which of these two scenarios will be the outcome? This will largely depend on the choices policymakers make in the legislative reviews currently taking place around the world to correctly apply these regulations and protect the rights of creators. It is important to support the development of AI environments that protect human creativity and culture.”
CISAC Executive Director Gadi Oron said: “CISAC commissioned this study from PMP Strategy to demonstrate the tremendous value that copyrighted works bring to artificial intelligence companies. Its conclusion is that creators’ works are It points to a fundamental flaw in the market, which is being unfairly and unethically appropriated to increase revenue for AI providers, and creators themselves are being excluded from this growth. We have an important message for you: We must act urgently to protect human creators, culture, and creativity. We must ensure that human creators are protected, can enforce their legal rights, and demand transparency from AI services. We need to ensure that these principles apply to AI. Embedded in the environment, this is not a threat to our culture or creative sector, but could be a win-win for creators and the tech industry.”
“This study underscores the need for ethically and economically sound policies that place creator rights at the very center of the AI world,” said CISAC Vice President, film director, and screenwriter Angeles González Cinde Reig. It’s highlighted,” he said. AI tools can powerfully support our work as storytellers and filmmakers. But in the rush to leverage and monetize generative AI, creators are being treated like an afterthought, lacking the right to license their work, not protected by transparency rules, and unable to receive fair compensation. I have a big fear that I won’t be able to do it. We must remember that human creators provide the fuel for an AI world and must be at the center of policymaking and regulation. ”
Marcelo Castello Branco, President of CISAC and CEO of UBC Brazil, said: “Our sector has adapted to whatever new technology comes along, but with generative AI we find ourselves in uncharted territory as disruption reaches the very heart of the creative process. There is no doubt that we are ready for these changes, and not just in our distribution channels. Our top priority is protecting the livelihoods of our creators. We are committed to ensuring they can continue their important work and develop their craft without compromise. Together, we will overcome this situation and protect the rights and opportunities of real human beings who drive innovation and creativity.”
Background and methodology
This study is the first of its kind to estimate the economic impact of Gen AI on creators of music and audiovisual works at a global level. This is a combination of qualitative and quantitative research, using case studies of Gen AI applications to identify the most impactful areas and linking these to economics in terms of market penetration of Gen AI services and revenue loss for creators. Convert to estimate. We also provide revenue estimates for Generative AI tools and services, which are the basis for calculating compensation structures for creators.
Historical numbers and forecasts are based on market data, relevant benchmarks, and industry experts including collective management organizations (CMOs), creators, technology companies, producers, publishers, DSPs, and institutional investors representing these industries. , public authorities, etc.).
Pippa Considine
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