And now Mr. Musk may be able to influence President Trump on this matter. Will Mr. Musk take a cautious stance toward AI? Or will he be interested in getting the government to use the AI developed by his own company, X.ai, perhaps as part of a new effort to reduce government waste?
AI investors like Wilcox are watching, so we asked him for his thoughts. This interview has been condensed and edited.
President Trump wants deregulation everywhere. How do you reconcile what Elon Musk, and you, believe in the risks of completely unchecked AI development?
Musk has warned about the dangers of AI and supported a bill in California that would create regulations. So as long as Trump understands masks, U.S. government policy could become a coin flip every day and every tweet. But my guess is that there will be a fierce battle or competition with China over who gets to define breakthrough AI, and they will try to keep China out of the chips and invest in their own efforts. I’m going to do it.
I’m not saying this is the wrong policy for the United States. If you’re going to race, you have to win the race. But race is not safe for the species.
A better outcome would be for everyone to slow down and be diplomatic. But I don’t think that will happen.
President Trump will rescind Biden’s executive order that put some guardrails on AI starting in 2023, or the recent executive order that prohibited American venture capitalists from investing in Chinese AI companies for national security reasons. Do you think?
There is no chance that President Trump will rescind his executive order blocking U.S. venture capital from supporting Chinese AI.
But I’m guessing he will rescind Biden’s AI executive order. That’s because it adds a step of safety vetting and he’s generally eliminating rules that restrict business.
The person who can best persuade him to keep AI safety in mind is Mr. Musk. As you know, Musk was an early supporter of OpenAI, and he is concerned about the safety of AI.
There have been various UN task forces set up regarding AI, such as risk, bias, equality of opportunity, and typical things that the UN considers. But is there a scenario where the United Nations puts in place guardrails and regulations that everyone agrees on to get us out of the race situation you describe?
I think that will be a good result. I’m not optimistic. The United States is likely to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. This is another thorny issue that we all need to work together on. I can only think that the new administration’s attitude is that there are no rules for the United States, so leave it alone.
Mr. Musk is running the just-named initiative, but no one really knows where it is located, what its mandate is, or whether it’s the Department of Government Efficiency. Do you think Mr. Musk will propose replacing many government workers with AI?
The cost for a human to perform office work is $50 per hour and $30 per hour. Depending on how much energy you use and how smart your paperwork is, the most you can spend to have an AI do the same paperwork as a bureaucrat is probably 10 cents.
I think AI will replace a lot of white-collar office work. It probably won’t happen in the next four years. Because I think it will take years to build the tools. Major economic transformation is probably five or ten years away.
But for now, Musk is a government vendor for SpaceX and now runs X.Ai, an AI company that competes with OpenAI. Are you thinking of going?
Without regulation, Mr. Musk will feel comfortable exercising his judgment about the safety of AI and moving forward. That man definitely thinks he’s smart enough to toy with humanity’s future.
Additionally, he may have a chance to land a big government contract with his AI company and rise to the top. But is his AI safe for society? What we saw in recent elections is that studies show that Musk is using X (formerly Twitter) algorithms to favor political allies. , and personally posted all kinds of misinformation and metaphors. I find that behavior threatening. I don’t think Mr. Musk would want to develop AI without bipartisan oversight and regulation in place.
Do you think Musk and Trump will remain friends over the next four years?
Both are men who expect to be in the spotlight, and in the immortal words of “Highlander,” “There can only be one.” Trump will eventually oust Musk and create his own I think I’ll be on my way.
In that case, there are three possible scenarios.
The worst scenario is that Trump becomes obsessed with AI and uses it to implement a police state like China.
The more likely scenario is that he doesn’t get involved at all. In other words, leave it to the market to decide. No matter who gets there first, companies will be free to do whatever they want. We must hope that common sense prevails.
The most hopeful scenario is that Mr. Rubio, or Mr. Rubio (as appointed by Secretary of State Marco), persuades China and other major powers to sign a global treaty on the safety of AI. That’s what humanity has done before, after inventing biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons. Diplomacy may sound like an exaggeration. I don’t know if we can get there with this administration.
But imagine if you could just listen to him for just a moment. You can lean forward and say, “Give Trump the Nobel Peace Prize!” And maybe it will work.
Contact Scott Kirsner at kirsner@pobox.com. Follow @ScottKirsner.
