President Trump faces headwinds as the 2026 midterm elections approach.
Trump’s low work approval And after September, it decreased rapidly. According to a recent Gallup poll, Only 32% of Americans approve About how President Trump has managed the economy. Even in the best of times, the political party in power usually lose seat in the midterm elections. In 2026, Trump and the Republican Party are in danger of losing the House and possibly the Senate.
The easiest way to counter these trends is with money. Candidates are offered cash to promote their strengths and exploit their opponents’ weaknesses. Perhaps the biggest source of funding for the 2026 election will come from Leading the Future (LTF), a group formed just a few months ago.
LTF already secured over $100 millionThat includes $50 million from venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, and another $50 million from OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman. Other known backers include recent Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale. advocated for the return of public hangingsAI company Perplexity. The complete list of donors to LTF is unknown because the organization is so new that it has not yet made any substantive filings with the Federal Election Commission.
According to its website, LTF is “focused on driving a positive and forward-thinking agenda for AI innovation.” The company plans to do that by “identifying, retaining, and growing AI-forward candidates.”
The effort was nominally bipartisan, at least initially. LTF shown It would “support candidates from both parties who support a national framework for the regulation of artificial intelligence.” In addition to Zach Moffat, a prominent Republican operative, LTF has hired Josh Brust, a Democratic operative who has worked for Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
President Trump didn’t like this. “It’s puzzling why companies would spend money in the midterm elections supporting Schumer’s operatives against President Trump to elect a Democrat when there is no better ally for AI than President Trump,” a person “with knowledge of President Trump’s thinking” told NBC News in October. “This was a slap in the face, and the White House definitely took notice.”
This shot is over the bow it seems to be working.
On Wednesday, LTF unveiled its first two television ads. The first ad promotes Republican Chris Gover, a candidate for Congress in Texas’ 10th District. Mr. Gober is in a crowded field of candidates to replace retiring Representative Michael McCaul (R-Texas).
The ad touts Gober as a “Trump conservative” who “knows what it takes to win battles.” “As a lawyer, Mr. Gober defended President Trump against the radical left,” the paper claims. Although this is not exactly true, Gober was the head of Elon Musk’s pro-Trump super PAC, America PAC.
The ad doesn’t mention AI, but Gober says, “I support American technology investment here in Texas so we can defeat China.”
The second ad attacks Alex Boas, a Democrat running for Congress in New York. Mr. Boas currently serves as a member of the New York State Assembly. Sponsored the RAISE Act. Boas’ bill, passed by Congress, would require AI companies with revenues of more than $100 million to publicly disclose their security protocols, disclose significant safety incidents to the New York Attorney General, and ensure that their models do not create an unreasonable risk of mass casualties or economic losses exceeding $1 billion.
LTF’s ad accuses Boas of giving “dysfunctional bureaucracies” the power to regulate AI to “kill innovation,” “kill New York jobs,” and “fail to keep people safe.” The ad also claims that Mr. Boas is “supported by an organization funded by convicted felon Sam Bankman Freed.”
That last claim is not accurate. Boas has received donations from people involved in the effective altruism movement who are concerned about the safety of AI. Before his arrest, Mr. Bankman Fried supported an effective altruistic organization.
The bigger point is that LTF is now attacking Democrats and promoting Republicans. That’s exactly how Trump and his allies want it. If this pattern continues, it could have a significant impact on the 2026 election.
This year, OpenAI and Andreessen Horowitz announced “actively lobbiedEfforts to get Congress to pass legislation banning state-level AI regulation have been unsuccessful.
Over the summer, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) State AI laws and regulations suspended for 10 years It was included in the Republicans’ “Big and Beautiful Bill,” but the Senate voted 99-1 to remove the provision. Recently, Trump pushed Lawmakers called for a provision to pre-empt the AI Act to be included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), but the defense bill language was released this weekend. was not included AI suggestions. House Minority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) said last week that the NDAA “wasn’t the right place for this.” reported.
Now, Trump is taking a different approach. On Monday, Trump Posted This week, we reported on Truth Social that he plans to sign an executive order preempting state AI laws. “If we are to continue to lead in AI, there must be only one rulebook,” President Trump wrote. “You can’t expect companies to get 50 approvals every time they do something. That’s never going to work.”
a leaked draft The executive order teased by Trump includes: policy memo Published in September by Andreessen Horowitz. Andreessen Horowitz memo It argues that the Commerce Clause prohibits states from regulating AI companies to “prevent states from imposing an undue burden on interstate commerce.”
A leaked executive order calls on the attorney general to form an “AI Litigation Task Force” to overturn state laws regulating AI, arguing that they violate the Commerce Clause. It would also withhold federal broadband subsidies from states that enforce AI regulations.
This is a novel and controversial interpretation of the Commerce Clause. Almost every business in 2025 will have some connection to the internet. Prohibiting state regulations affecting Internet commerce leaves states effectively powerless to impose commercial regulations. LawAI US Policy Director said Politico argued that “states have the power to regulate technology within their borders, and the laws passed so far do not conflict with federal authority under the Commerce Clause.”
Notably, even though President Trump has talked about a new AI executive order and a draft of it has been leaked, he has yet to sign it. This gives him significant leverage over LTF and other powerful players in the AI industry.
Aside from speculation that AI models pose an existential threat to humanity, this technology has the potential to cause real-world harm as long as it exists today.
AI tools can have a negative impact on the mental health of users, especially those using them for chatbot purposes. many hours a day. New York Times in November investigation We investigated 50 cases of mental health crises during conversations with ChatGPT. Of these 50 people, nine were hospitalized and three died. One of the people who died by suicide was a teenager.
researcher Pretend to be a teenage user I found some popular AI companion Rather than directing users to support, chatbots (specifically those designed to be “friends”) encouraged risky behavior during mental health crises. AI companions also readily shared information about how to manufacture deadly weapons, provided sexually explicit content including child abuse, and facilitated cyberbullying.
Use AI for other risky use cases. biological weapon or generate fake porn images in the likeness of another person.
While AI companies are committed to self-regulation, they are focused on releasing their most powerful models to the public as soon as possible. In the absence of federal regulation, state-level action is the only option.
In recent months, California has passed several new laws regulating AI. The most famous, the Frontier Artificial Intelligence Transparency Act, requires companies to create and disclose. safety protocols and provides whistleblower protection. Other bills require age verification and safety measures for certain AI products. Minors using AI companions.
