Nearly eight in 10 (79%) executives surveyed expect AI to make a significant contribution to their company’s revenue by 2030, up from 40% today, according to a new study from the IBM Institute for Business Value. But few (24%) have a clear idea of where that revenue will come from.
Despite this uncertainty, investment is accelerating. Respondents predict that investments in AI will jump approximately 150% between now and 2030. At the same time, 68% of executives surveyed are concerned that AI initiatives will fail because they are not integrated with core business activities.
“AI will not only support your business, it will define your business,” says Mohammad Ali, senior vice president, IBM Consulting. “By 2030, winning companies will weave AI into every decision and operation. They will have strong AI assets, move faster than their competitors, bring innovation to market faster, and use technology and automation to deliver real, measurable business outcomes.”
This global study, based on insights from 2,000 executives, shows that AI is emerging as a key driver of business growth through 2030. The findings suggest that future success will come from making bolder strategic bets, even though many of the executives surveyed face a gap between expectations and results.
Key findings include:
Executives are looking beyond AI efficiency to drive future profits
Currently, almost half (47%) of AI spending is focused on efficiency, but respondents expect 62% of AI spending to be on innovation by 2030. 64% of executives surveyed believe that by 2030, competitive advantage will come from innovation rather than resource optimization. 70% of executives surveyed plan to reinvest the value gained from AI-enabled productivity improvements into growth initiatives. Respondents expect AI to increase productivity by 42% by 2030, with 67% expecting most of the productivity gains from AI by then.
Competitive advantage depends on betting on the right technology
Most executives surveyed (57%) say their company’s competitive advantage will come from the sophistication of AI models, but only 28% have a clear vision of what AI models will be needed by 2030. 82% of respondents expect their company’s AI capabilities to be multi-model by 2030, and 72% expect small language models (SLMs) to outpace large language models (LLMs). Organizations surveyed that scale AI across multiple workflows using small custom or foundational AI models expect to see a 24% increase in productivity and a 55% increase in operating margins by 2030. Although 59% of respondents say quantum-enabled AI will transform their industry by 2030, only 27% expect to use quantum computing by then, a gap that highlights the opportunity for organizations ready to act today.
AI is redefining leadership and the skills that matter most
Executives surveyed expect 25% of corporate boards to have AI advisors or co-decision makers by 2030, 74% say AI will redefine leadership roles across the enterprise, and two-thirds believe AI will create entirely new leadership roles. Meanwhile, 67% of respondents said job longevity is becoming shorter, 57% expect most of today’s workforce skills to be obsolete by 2030, and 67% agree that mindset is more important than skills. Additionally, 67% of executives surveyed expect AI to eliminate the resource and skill constraints that hold organizations back today. Our analysis shows that AI-first organizations are 48% more likely to create net new jobs and 46% more likely to redesign their organizational structure to achieve more AI value.
